Access Type

Open Access Dissertation

Date of Award

January 2025

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Department

Political Science

First Advisor

Brad Roth

Abstract

International relations (IR) scholarship frequently utilizes structural and domestic political levels of analysis to explain interstate war and conflict. While U.S.-China relations have deteriorated significantly, there is considerable disagreement about what caused this change. In this dissertation I utilize Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) to operationalize instability between the U.S. and China and test competing theories. Increasing levels of MIDs since 2009 broadly confirm structural theories that hold power parity is a primary driver of conflict between great powers. Case studies of the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995 – 1996) and Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis (2022), however, illustrate that domestic political factors also play an important causal role. This holds important implications for the advantages and limitations of parsimonious structural theories and the possible causes and likelihood of future war between the U.S. and China. An examination of the logic of nuclear weaponry and China’s own nuclear buildup illustrates the continued salience of these findings in the nuclear era.

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