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Access Type
WSU Access
Date of Award
January 2024
Degree Type
Dissertation
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Department
Economics
First Advisor
Stephen S. Spurr
Abstract
This dissertation aims to identify factors contributing to the declining marriage market in China, beyond traditional explanations. We developed two theoretical models to supplement conventional studies, proposing social norms, education, financial and policy change play crucial roles in this decline. In Chapter 2, we introduced a two-stage expected utility model to demonstrate the impact of social norms on the marriage market before individuals seek marriage or divorce. We created social norm variables as proxies for age and divorce discrimination, we also use illiterate rate and college graduate rate to verify their impact on marriage and divorce rates. Our found individuals exhibiting risk-hedging behaviors. The remarriage ratio, the GDP per capita, negatively correlates with both marriage and divorce rates, and lower education levels negatively correlate with marriage rates, while higher education levels show no significant impact. Chapter 3 develops a theoretical model based on the marriage bargain model, illustrating how the removal of the One-Child Policy could negatively impact the marriage market. The model shows that under the new policy, women experience reduced "gains of marriage," leading them to choose to stay single. Empirical data revealed inconsistencies in the correlation between variables and marriage outcomes, suggesting that some inconsistencies are due to policy changes while others indicate marriage as a risk-hedging measure. Chapter 4 focus on birth rates, conducting three empirical studies: one on the actual birth rates and two on the willingness to have children. The first study found that higher education levels negatively correlate with birth rates, alongside economic indicators like CPI. The second study revealed education levels negatively affect the willingness to have children, and women are less likely than men to want more children. The third study's marginal analysis found that individuals with an "ideal number of children" of 1 or 2 showed decreased willingness to have children post-policy change, while those with an "ideal number of children" of 3 or 4 showed increased willingness. These results suggest that the removal of the One-Child Policy may not have had the intended effect, as financial constraints play a crucial role in birth rate outcomes.
Recommended Citation
Li, Xinghua, "The Impact Of Education, Economic Downturns And The Removal Of The One-Child Policy On China’s Marriage Market And Birth Rate" (2024). Wayne State University Dissertations. 4164.
https://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/oa_dissertations/4164