Document Type



Circulatory degeneration is a major component of the aging process contributing to human mortality. Many epidemiological studies have attempted to identify the physiological variables which indicate individuals at increased risk of the disease. What has seldom been done in human populations is to examine the dynamics of those physiological variables and how they interact with mortality or morbidity selection to determine the age trajectory of the parameters of the distribution of the population on the relevant physiological variables. In this paper a model is proposed to examine those dynamics using data from the Framingham, Massachusetts study of coronary heart disease (CHD.) Parameters of the CHD process are estimated for both Framingham males and females and used to project the operation of the disease process in the population over 60 years. The age trajectories of the physiological parameters are presented and discussed.