We advance scholarship related to home foreclosures and neighborhood crime by employing Granger causality tests and multilevel growth modeling with annual data from Chicago neighborhoods over the 1998-2009 period. We find that completed foreclosures temporally lead property crime and not vice versa. More completed foreclosures during a year both increase the level of property crime and slow its decline subsequently. This relationship is strongest in higher-income, predominantly renter-occupied neighborhoods, contrary to the conventional wisdom. We did not find unambiguous, uni-directional causation in the case of violent crime and when filed foreclosures were analyzed.
Criminology | Public Policy | Social Policy | Urban Studies | Urban Studies and Planning
Williams, S., Galster, G., & Verma, N. (2014). Home Foreclosures and Neighborhood Crime Dynamics. Housing Studies 29(3): 380-406. doi: 10.1080/02673037.2013.803041