Short-Term Projections of AIDS Cases in Mexico

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We attempt to analyze and predict the behavior of the AIDS epidemic in Mexico. The reporting delay is corrected by using a cluster analysis, and the corrected data are used to make short-term projections by extrapolation, by fitting linear and log-linear models, and by back-calculation. The incubation period is assumed to have a Weibull distribution, and step functions are used for the infection functions. Most of the methods predict a mean of 25,000 accumulated cases by the end of 1993, and a comparison of the predictions with actual data up to November 1990 shows good agreement in all cases except the log-transformation linear model. The data for 1990 also show the reporting delay correction to be adequate in most cases.

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