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Date of Award
This dissertation focuses on large deviations of stochastic systems with applications to optimal control and system identification. It encompasses analysis of two-time-scale Markov processes and system identification with regular and quantized data. First, we develops large deviations principles for systems driven by continuous-time Markov chains with twotime scales and related optimal control problems. A distinct feature of our setup is that the Markov chain under consideration is time dependent or inhomogeneous. The use of two time-scale formulation stems from the effort of reducing computational complexity in a wide variety of applications in control, optimization, and systems theory. Starting with a rapidly fluctuating Markovian system, under irreducibility conditions, both large deviations upper and lower bounds are established first for a fixed terminal time and then for time-varying dynamic systems. Then the results are applied to certain dynamic systems and LQ control problems.
Second, we study large deviations for identifications systems. Traditional system identification concentrates on convergence and convergence rates of estimates in mean squares, in distribution, or in a strong sense. For system diagnosis and complexity analysis, however, it is essential to understand the probabilities of identification errors over a finite data window. This paper investigates identification errors in a large deviations framework. By considering both space complexity in terms of quantization levels and time complexity with respect to data window sizes, this study provides a new perspective to understand the fundamental relationship between probabilistic errors and resources that represent data sizes in computer algorithms, sample sizes in statistical analysis, channel bandwidths in communications, etc.
This relationship is derived by establishing the large deviations principle for quantized identification that links binary-valued data at one end and regular sensors at the other. Under some mild conditions, we obtain large deviations upper and lower bounds. Our results accommodate
independent and identically distributed noise sequences, as well as more general classes of mixing-type noise sequences. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.
He, Qi, "Large deviations of stochastic systems and applications" (2012). Wayne State University Dissertations. Paper 509.