Access Type

Open Access Dissertation

Date of Award

December 2011

Degree Type


Degree Name



Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

First Advisor

Ratna B. Chinnam


This research presents a statistical methodology to construct an early automotive warranty issue detection model based on upstream supply chain information. This is contrary to extant methods that are mostly reactive and only rely on data available from the OEMs (original equipment manufacturers). For any upstream supply chain information with direct history from warranty claims, the research proposes hazard rate models to link upstream supply chain information as explanatory covariates for early detection of warranty issues. For any upstream supply chain information without direct warranty claims history, we introduce Bayesian hazard rate models to account for uncertainties of the explanatory covariates. In doing so, it improves both the accuracy of warranty issue detection as well as the lead time for detection. The proposed methodology is illustrated and validated using real-world data from a leading global Tier-one automotive supplier.