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Article Title

Short-Term Projections of AIDS Cases in Mexico

Document Type

Article

Abstract

We attempt to analyze and predict the behavior of the AIDS epidemic in Mexico. The reporting delay is corrected by using a cluster analysis, and the corrected data are used to make short-term projections by extrapolation, by fitting linear and log-linear models, and by back-calculation. The incubation period is assumed to have a Weibull distribution, and step functions are used for the infection functions. Most of the methods predict a mean of 25,000 accumulated cases by the end of 1993, and a comparison of the predictions with actual data up to November 1990 shows good agreement in all cases except the log-transformation linear model. The data for 1990 also show the reporting delay correction to be adequate in most cases.

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