Short-Term Projections of AIDS Cases in Mexico
We attempt to analyze and predict the behavior of the AIDS epidemic in Mexico. The reporting delay is corrected by using a cluster analysis, and the corrected data are used to make short-term projections by extrapolation, by fitting linear and log-linear models, and by back-calculation. The incubation period is assumed to have a Weibull distribution, and step functions are used for the infection functions. Most of the methods predict a mean of 25,000 accumulated cases by the end of 1993, and a comparison of the predictions with actual data up to November 1990 shows good agreement in all cases except the log-transformation linear model. The data for 1990 also show the reporting delay correction to be adequate in most cases.
Velasco, S Ruiz and Ordaz, F Aranda
"Short-Term Projections of AIDS Cases in Mexico,"
5, Article 8.
Available at: http://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/humbiol/vol64/iss5/8
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